Figure 1 summarizes restated MMI family values from 2020 through 2022.
Figure 1: Annual healthcare cost for MMI family of four
This year’s MMI is based on 2020 healthcare claims data projected forward to 2022 using estimated healthcare cost trends. With this approach, we estimate the 2022 MMI value and restate the 2021 and 2020 MMI values to reflect more recent information collected since last year’s publication. We also reviewed 2019 healthcare claims data due to the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on 2020 healthcare costs.
MMI healthcare costs: Looking back
The year 2020 marked the first time in the history of the MMI that healthcare costs decreased year over year. But this reprieve in healthcare cost increases would be short-lived. Healthcare costs came roaring back with a 13.2% trend. This rate, driven by a forecasted rebound in healthcare utilization, is higher than historical healthcare cost increases and gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the past five years.3 The higher 3.1% annual trend from 2019 through 2021 is similar to historical MMI trends observed before the COVID-19 pandemic.
MMI healthcare costs: Looking ahead
We project healthcare costs will grow by approximately 4.6% for the MMI family from 2021 to 2022. As we work our way through 2022, the U.S. healthcare sector continues to face an elevated level of uncertainty due to COVID-19 and evolving macroeconomic conditions. Unit cost inflation, technology, the COVID-19 pandemic, and new variation by geography all contribute to this uncertainty.
It’s important to note that changes in healthcare costs are different for the average person, the MMI family, and other groups of people.
For more in-depth analysis of projected 2022 U.S. healthcare costs for our MMI family and an average person, download the full report.
Our interactive tool gives readers the ability to see health costs for the MMI family and different family compositions. Use the tool below to build your own family and understand their healthcare costs.
1The Milliman Medical Index is an actuarial analysis of the projected total cost of healthcare for a hypothetical family of four covered by an employer-sponsored preferred provider organization (PPO) plan. Unlike many other healthcare cost reports, the MMI measures the total cost of healthcare benefits, not just the employer’s share of the costs, and not just premiums. The MMI only includes healthcare costs. It does not include health plan administrative expenses, pharmacy rebates, or insurance company profit loads.
2The 2021 MMI dollar amount is not directly comparable to the amount published in last year’s MMI report as the values have been restated due to the availability of more current claims experience and healthcare cost inflation information.
3Real GDP increased by approximately 1.8% per-year over the five-year period ending in 2021. See https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product, retrieved May 19, 2022.