On January 29, 2025, the Retirement Plans Experience Committee (RPEC) of the Society of Actuaries’ (SOA) Research Institute released an exposure draft of the Pub-2016 Public Retirement Plans Mortality Tables, offering an in-depth analysis of the latest mortality trends observed in U.S. public-sector retirement plans. These tables update the previously published Pub-2010 tables from 2019, with the SOA planning updates approximately every five years.
Experience period spanning 2013 to 2019
The experience period spans from 2013 to 2019, with data that was collected from 41 public pension systems representing 100 plans, covering about 58 million life-years and 774,000 deaths. While seven years of data was collected, experience from 2020 was excluded to avoid distortions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The resulting mortality rates reflect one-year probabilities of death as of July 1, 2016, the midpoint of the experience period.
Tables breakdown
The tables developed in this study are gender-specific and categorized by job type (teachers, public safety, and general service employees), with further breakdowns based on income (above and below median). Separate tables are provided for employees, retirees, disabled retirees, and contingent survivors, each with amount-weighted1 and head-count-weighted versions. The SOA did not develop mortality tables for all job categories combined because each job category has distinct characteristics that could significantly influence mortality rates.
RPEC identified salary and benefit amount as the most significant predictors of mortality differences within gender/job classifications when developing the Pub-2010 tables. As a result, RPEC produced above- and below-median tables, noting that the impact of these tables is smaller for teachers than for public safety or general service employees, and the impact is larger for males than for females across all job categories.
Impact on present values
Table 1 shows how the present value of an age 62 deferred annuity changed by moving from the Pub-2010 to the Pub-2016 amount-weighted tables. With the exception of male public safety members, the Pub-2016 tables generally result in lower present values, with more pronounced changes at older ages.
Table 1: Change in present values* of age 62 deferred annuity using the Pub-2010 to Pub-2016 tables
* Present values were calculated using the Pub-2010 and Pub-2016 job-specific, amount-weighted mortality tables, projected generationally using scale MP-2021 as of July 1, 2024, with a pre-retirement discount rate of 7.0% and a post-retirement discount rate of 5.0%.
The report notes that using the head-count-weighted tables results in similar changes, with present values declining 1.0% to 3.3% for males, and decreasing 0.3% to 1.4% for females, varying by job category and age.
Recommended use of the Pub-2016 tables
RPEC advises stakeholders in U.S. public-sector retirement plans to consider the Pub-2016 tables for measuring pension obligations, with adjustments as needed for specific characteristics and experience of the group. For most pension-related calculations, RPEC believes the mortality rates should be projected with an appropriate improvement scale and generational projection should be considered.
Stakeholders should consult with their actuaries about using these updated tables in accordance with Actuarial Standards of Practice (ASOP) No. 27.
Comments on the exposure draft must be submitted to the SOA Research Institute ([email protected]) by March 31, 2025.
1 Amount-weighted rates reflect the impact of income levels on mortality, while head-count-weighted rates provide an average mortality rate for the population, treating all individuals equally.