In this white paper, we evaluate the effect of risk score increases in the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) on federal expenditures across MSSP and Medicare Advantage. We test two hypothetical scenarios, for which we project the decrease in MA expenditures exceeds the projected increase in MSSP expenditures. In the paper, we discuss:

• Key findings
• Why do CMS-HCC risk scores for MSSP accountable care organizations affect payments to Medicare Advantage organizations?
• Sensitivity tests
• Methodology and data sources

This paper was commissioned by Aledade, Inc.